Without a change to its current economic environment, Pakistan will not be able to succeed in the globalizing world. Photo Credit: pingnews.com

Pakistan, to be certain, is a country on the brink. To some, President Musharraf's recent declaration of martial law is a desperate move of the country's military and land-owning elite to stave off a religiously inspired revolution.

Caught in between is Pakistan's middle class — there, as elsewhere, the foundation for building an equitable, post-feudalist, post-corruption society.

All Aboard

Under these treacherous circumstances, is there anything that can focus the minds of a sufficiently large number of Pakistanis to transition the current latent chaos to a constructive outcome?

The only factor that could get the job done, in a word, is India. Simply put, Pakistan is seeing the globalization train pulling out of the station — with India aboard and settling in for the ride.

With the single-handed exception of the truly antiquity-minded radical wing of the country's religious leaders, all other layers of Pakistan's leadership do realize that the country is running the danger of being left behind in the race of development.

Up and Up

Its population is exploding in size, with forecasts that it will increase from the current level of 164 million to 290 million by 2050. At that point, Pakistan would become the world's fifth-most-populous country.

But under current conditions, there is little chance Pakistan could create anywhere near enough jobs for all of its new citizens.

Busting at the Seams

In the Arab and Muslim world the youth bulge - and especially the ever-larger groups of unemployed males - is the real problem.

It is widely acknowledged in the Arab and Muslim world that the youth bulge — and especially the ever-larger groups of unemployed males — is the real problem for those societies. That realization is increasingly shared even by those countries' religious leaders.

Absent a determined focus on economic growth, this is a time bomb that nobody will be able to handle.

Of course, Pakistan's intelligence services have long played an extremely cynical, self-absorbed game that may — in effect, or by design — end up negating the fruits of what the civilian economic leadership team under Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz — the erstwhile Finance Minister and ex-top Citibanker — has accomplished.

Wasting Good Growth

That would be a terrible shame. After all, even though the fruits of economic growth are still not distributed fairly enough throughout society, Pakistan's major cities do benefit from the prevailing growth dynamics.

These help to concentrate the mind on moving ahead — rather than falling to the temptation of opting for the Stone Age, proverbially speaking — a temptation often borne out of sheer material despair.

Slowly but Surely

It is in the face of those grim realities that Pakistan's political leaders — and all the powers behind them — must operate and plan for the future. None of these issues will be resolved easily — and success is not at all guaranteed.

A major inducement, which the entire world can only hope for, is that Pakistani leaders will undergo a process of transformation in historic terms — along the lines shown by India.

Rapprochement

Any society that over-emphasizes military spending at the expense of the economy is ultimately doomed.

Over time, better economic performance is also the best inducement to improve relations between both nations.

Such a rapprochement, if it materializes, will resemble the one Germany and France went through in Europe after 1950. Given the bloody and bitter wars those two nations fought, it is downright amazing to look at where Germany and France are today — happily united in many ways. As with India and Pakistan now, nobody thought that was possible.

Gorbi Knows Best

The other lesson being learned, especially in Pakistan these days, is the one Mikhail Gorbachev taught the Soviet Union. Any society that over-emphasizes military spending at the expense of the economy is ultimately doomed.

Pakistan's leaders must recognize that, compared to India, they face much bigger difficulties in strengthening their economy. Pakistan has to contend with comparative disadvantages that go well beyond the absence of sufficiently large pools of software engineers.

Tying the Knot

Pakistan's best economic hope is one that, admittedly, may seem far-fetched today — namely, to hitch its own economic development on the dynamism of India's economy. In the end, what we are seeing is something profound. It has almost become a commonplace assertion that globalization does not advance — but rather hinders — the advancement of a constructive and equitable global agenda.

Getting the Job Done

Pakistan's best economic hope is to hitch its own economic development on the dynamism of India's economy.

And after 9/11 — and with constant fears of terrorism — wise commentators, such as William Greider, have argued that globalization has returned "with a strangely diminished glow."

And yet, looking ahead — not back — the inverse is true as well. Only a greater sense of realism-cum-cooperation, as complex as it is, will advance individual nations' prospects and well-being.

Hyping and distrust and disregard for the power of economics and the vitality of growth will surely not get the job done of making the global community more sustainable, inclusive and broader-based.

Globalization to the Rescue

In short, the positive, motivating powers of globalization — that is, the effort to stay, or become, competitive in an integrating world — is a crucial driver in shaping our human future.

As is typical for the transformation tasks related to globalization, that is a very risky — but unavoidable — mission. And clearly, few country pairings are as hairy and potentially troubled in this regard than how India and Pakistan influence each other. In the end, globalization is all about moving key countries toward a resolution of all their outdated conflicts.




Contributed by Stephan Richter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The Globalist. Reprinted with permission from the Globalist.

To read another Global Envision article about Pakistan, see Let Market Forces Decide the Pace of Growth in Pakistan.



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